According to Daniel Gilbert, famous social psychologist from Harvard University, you and me do very bad when estimating odds for our own benefit, meaning that our expectations are based in either false or wrong ideas.
Today, I am presenting this scientist’s data because I find them giving a different (improved) approach to what I posted before, here in Frugal Science, in my article: Do you know what is real?
As part of a TED.com presentation, Gilbert showed interesting data reinforcing his arguments. One of them performed as follows:
Americans were asked to estimate the odds of dying in different ways (how many cases per year, per 200 million US citizens). Te first column shows what they estimated and the second column shows the real date. These were the results:
– ———————————————————–
Cause Estimation Reality
Tornado 564 90
Fireworks 160 6
Asthma 506 1886
Drowning 1684 7380
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Looking at the data is easy to note that two activities were vastly overestimated (Tornado and Fireworks) and two were highly underestimated (Asthma and Drowning). Why? Asks Gilbert.
When was the last time you picked up the newspaper and the headline said “boy dies of asthma”? Who cares about a fact like that? Would argue the newspaper’s head editor. It’s not interesting because it’s too common. If he would have blown his little head with a firework during the fourth of July would have being different, but…
Some cases look more common to us because we are used to watch them at prime time. The news provide the real facts to their public, of course, but only if it sells, altering this way our perception of reality in not a meaningless way.
And that’s something we should be aware of.
Hi there! I’m Gustavo and Frugal Science is about helping you rediscover your exploring nature and enjoying the benefits of looking life in a different way. Anybody can become a true explorer –it’s our nature-, all you need is a mindful attention and some frugal science.
Great post, Gustavo.
I have been amazed at the inability of folks to recognize the reasonableness of various activities. Which is why so many folks buy lottery tickets. And, why they don’t take their asthma medicine. Or, why they drink and drive. Because the logical conclusions are lost on them.
Thanks for bringing this to the fore!
Roy A. Ackerman, Ph.D., E.A. recently posted..Let all who are hungry come and eat
Gustavo: Love this post. I often comment that I wonder if there has been an increase in this or that fact or is it simply because the media is playing it up so much.
My Dad had what I called his southernisms. One he expressed all the time – Everything is relative. Amen.
Cathy Miller recently posted..Solid Business Writing Lessons From Ice Road Truckers
Hi, Roy! That’s exactly the point. Why do we loose our capacity of making logical conclusions in the every day decisions?
gustavo recently posted..Do you have a wrong perception of what is real?
Hi Cathy! Your Dad is one very wise man. Thank you.
I have been thinking very much about facts in evidence. So many times people make judgements or decisions without having all the facts. If they were to step back and ask what it was they knew and what they surmised, they’d be surprised at the lack of facts in evidence. Thank the media, thank poor education that has failed to teach people to think or we should just thank ourselves for not learning to think, it’s time to look at the actual facts in evidence. You have presented some strong ones. Thanks, Gustavo.
Ann recently posted..Learning to Link In
Hi Ann! You are right. It is weird why why do the things we do, sometimes getting the whole thing wrong. The best to do in these cases is, as you stated, to look at the actual facts in evidence.
Gustavo recently posted..Do you have a wrong perception of what is real?
I think most people out there don’t really have a firm grasp on reality. The media is mostly biased and they only publish what they want you to know. To make a better example, most people really don’t understand how bad things are overseas. The media chooses not to cover much of world news.
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